The Mock: Volume II

Kyle Zimmer

I didn’t plan on putting up another Mock til mid-March, but some big things happened and it necessitated a new version.

The biggest riser in this mock is Kyle Zimmer, who has been lights-out in his first two starts and was clocked at 94-98 in his first outing of the year. His velocity was lower in his second start, but that potential will have teams drooling come June if he’s anywhere close to that to finish out the season.

The biggest drops both come from Georgia Southern, as I didn’t get many good reports back from Chris Beck’s first two starts, and he’s far too risky to go in the top half of the first round, much less the top five. Victor Roache — who I liked more than most — drops off due to his left-wrist injury, which might keep him out for the year. A team will take a chance on him because of the talent, but I don’t think it’ll be in the first sixty picks.

Have at it.

Pick Team Name Pos. School
01 Houston Mark Appel RHP Stanford
02 Minnesota Lucas Giolito RHP Harvard Westlake HS (CA)
03 Seattle Mike Zunino C Florida
04 Baltimore Byron Buxton OF Appling County HS (GA)
05 Kansas City Kevin Gausman RHP LSU
06 Chicago-NL Deven Marrero SS Arizona State
07 San Diego Max Fried LHP Harvard Westlake HS (CA)
08 Pittsburgh Carlos Correa SS PR Baseball Academy
09 Miami Joey Gallo 1B Bishop Gorman HS (NV)
10 Colorado Kyle Zimmer RHP San Francisco
11 Oakland Michael Wacha RHP Texas A&M
12 New York-NL David Dahl OF Oak Mountain HS (AL)
13 Chicago-AL Stephen Piscotty 3B Stanford
14 Cincinnati Stryker Trahan C Acadania HS (LA)
15 Cleveland Matthew Smoral LHP Solon HS (OH)
16 Washington Walker Weickel RHP Olympia HS (FL)
17 Toronto Lucas Sims RHP Brookwood HS (GA)
18 Los Angeles-NL Brian Johnson LHP Florida
19 St. Louis Rio Ruiz
3B Bishop Amat HS (CA)
20 San Francisco Hunter Virant LHP Camarillo HS (CA)
21 Atlanta Chris Beck RHP Georgia Southern
22 Toronto Gavin Cecchini SS Garbe HS (MS)
23 St. Louis Marcus Stroman RHP Duke
24 Boston Albert Almora CF Mater Academy
25 Tampa Bay Addison Russell IF Pace HS (FL)
26 Arizona Zach Eflin RHP Hagerty HS (FL)
27 Milwaukee Jesse Winker OF Olympia HS (FL)
28 Milwaukee Courtney Hawkins OF Courtney HS (TX)
29 Texas Christian Walker 1B South Carolina
30 New York-AL Mitch Nay OF Hamilton HS (AZ)
31 Boston Patrick Wisdom 3B St. Mary’s
32 Minnesota Josh Elander C TCU
33 San Diego Branden Kline RHP Virginia
34 Oakland Nolan Fontana SS Florida
35 New York-NL Keon Barnum 1B King HS (FL)
36 St. Louis Carson Kelly 3B Westview HS (OR)
37 Boston Kyle Hansen RHP St. Johns
38 Milwaukee Clint Coulter C Union HS (WA)
39 Texas Kenny Diekroeger IF Stanford
40 Philadelphia Trey Williams 3B Valencia HS (CA)
41 Houston Adam Brett Walker 1B Jacksonville
42 Minnesota Ty Hensley RHP Santa Fe HS (OK)
43 Chicago-NL Tyler Naquin OF Texas A&M
44 San Diego Kieran Lovegrove RHP Mission Viejo HS (CA)
45 Pittsburgh Travis Jankowski OF Stony Brook
46 Colorado Stephen Johnson RHP St. Edwards (TX)
47 Oakland Corey Seager IF NW Carrabus HS (NC)
48 Chicago-AL Cole Irvin LHP Servite HS (CA)
49 Cincinnati Martin Agosta RHP St. Mary’s
50 Toronto Cody Poteet RHP Christian HS (CA)
51 Los Angeles-NL Nolan Sanburn RHP Arkansas
52 St. Louis Richie Shaffer 1B Clemson
53 Texas Taylore Cherry RHP Butler HS (OH)
54 Philadelphia Josh Conway RHP Coastal Carolina
55 Chicago-NL Mitchell Traver RHP Houston Christian HS (TX)
56 San Diego Brandon Thomas OF Georgia Tech
57 Cincinnati Lex Rutledge LHP Samford
58 Toronto Kyle Twomey LHP El Dorado HS (CA)
59 St. Louis Jake Barrett RHP Arizona State
60 Toronto Lewis Brinson OF Coral Springs HS (FL)
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16 Responses to “The Mock: Volume II”

  1. Harrison says:

    Amazing job, Chris!

  2. Greg says:

    I don’t think the Brewers will pass on either of the Williams

  3. Plowshare says:

    The only bone I have to pick is your player ratings in Giollito vs. Appel. How can you possibly have a 21yo College guy’s FB rated higher than a 17yo who sits 94-96 and hits 99? Giollito is barely out of puberty while Appel is a man. I’d also say that Appel’s mechanics r not nearly as clean in comparison to Giollito. Nobody would argue with that statement.

  4. Chris Crawford says:

    Giolito will have a higher grade for his fastball when I start to edit rankings this week, but they’ll be lower than Appel’s again, because while Giolito throws a bit harder than Appel, he doesn’t command his fastball as well — or even close — to the Stanford right-hander. It isn’t just about velocity.

    • Plowshare says:

      Chris, I hate to disagree with you but you need to do some homework. Most of the scouts I’ve talked to have Giollito at plus or plus-plus FB command through his last 30+ innings since he started back-up again this fall. This is not the same guy you may have seen last summer, at all. He’s a 17yo power pitcher sitting 95mph and pounding the zone. When was the last time you heard of a kid this young doing this?

      Appel’s last 2 starts: 105 pitches thru 7 Innings against Vandy and an eye-popping 120 pitches thru 7 innings against a weak hitting Texas team. No idea how that translates to plus command. And please don’t tell me it’s about the competition. The plate is 17″ wide for both guys.

      Don’t get me wrong, I think Appels going #1 but not for any other reason than he’s a College guy and HS guys are just a risk that is difficult to take at the #1 slot.

      • Orange says:

        It’s called a dissenting opinion, and they exist. If you could scout players based off college stats, then scouts would cease to exist. This doesn’t even begin to address the glaring small sample fallacies. I’ve heard scouts say no player in this draft class would go in the top 8 last year…meaning that there is a strong possibility that Bundy and Bradley (who could both easily match Giolito’s velo) are comparable prospects within the past year. After seeing Appel against Texas, i understand why he is a strong contender for #1, even over Giolito.

        • Plowshare says:

          You heard Keith Law say that. He’s not a scout. And really, the 2011 guys aren’t draftable so what’s the point? Giolito has walked exactly 4 guys in his last 31 innings since November. If you’re serious about writing about players, you should be interested in information like that. It’s not difficult to get. You just call the HS Coach.

          • Orange says:

            KLaw is far from the only one with that point of view. The point is that guys like Giolito just aren’t that rare at the top of a draft class. And for heaven’s sake, college stats are useless enough, but now you’re using high school stats? Please tell me you’re kidding. And sure, I would love to call the coach to get those useless stats if I was a writer for the Harvard-Westlake HS newspaper in desperate need of column filler for journalism class! It’s called performance-based scouting, and it is next to useless. If I was “serious about writing” I would certainly spend my time learning legitimate methods of amateur player evaluation.

  5. Great list and I look forward to these throughout the year.. Also seeing Coulter at 38 makes me want to go out and see him even more this year

  6. [...] Chris Crawford, at MLB Draft Insider, posted the second version of his mock draft, with Mark Appel sticking at number 1, Kyle Zimmer jumping up, and Victor Roache falling off.  -LINK [...]

  7. Plowshare says:

    Plowshare, I appreciate your enthusiasm, but it’s unacceptable to attack me or the other posters on this website.

    • Plowshare says:

      Orange, i’m not sure why you don’t consider on field performance a good measure of the current report on a player. Specifically, we’re talking about Giolito’s “command”. You are saying quite clearly that you believe there are issues with it and saying that others believe the same. I’m saying that the kid has walked exactly 2 batters in his last 40 innings since November, including a 1-hitter yesterday (6 1/3, 1 hit, no walks, 8K’s) and that these stats are readily available to anyone who wants them as a way of refuting that opinion.

      Secondly, stating that a 17yo HS student who consistently sits 94-96, has 3 pitches he can throw for strikes & is now topping out at 100mph (twice yesterday, btw) aren’t that rare doesn’t ring true for me. Add the fact that he’s 6’6″ and 240 lbs. and I’d say a guy like this is extremely rare.

      I am not saying the guy is going to be a success in the pro’s or win a couple of Cy Youngs but let’s give this kid his due. All I can say is wowza.

      • Orange says:

        Way to ignore all context. Personally, I think Giolito projects to have above average command…as do most other informed opinions I’ve seen. It’s possible for me to share an opinion while finding your methods of evaluation ludicrous. If I DID disagree with your opinion, the last thing I would consult would be high school stats. You cannot judge a high-schooler’s command based upon his stats. I am a huge proponent of advanced statistics at the major league level. However, I also enjoy reading through scouting reports in advance of the draft, and I can’t ever recall seeing someone using high-school stats as legitimate pieces of evidence of a player’s skill set. I don’t take issue with the player, I just happen to dissent from the poster telling the writer that a college player does not have plus command because of his pitch counts, or judging a high school player’s command based off of walk totals. And I despise the arrogant tone said poster uses when failing to show regard for opinions other than his own, especially when such an attitude leads to him doling out advice so I can become a “serious writer.”

        But you weren’t done brazenly throwing context to the wind. You go on to imply that I said kids like Giolito aren’t rare…when in actuality i stated that kids like Giolito aren’t rare at the top of the draft. 2011? Bundy/Bradley. 2010? Taillon. 2009? Turner/Miller/Wheeler. Seemingly every year, there are high school guys with huge velo and great size at the top of the board. It’s fun getting excited about these guys, but it was less than a year ago when Bradley hit 100. Scouting players can’t simply be reduced to numbers like velocity, especially at the high school and college ranks.

        I think Giolito is a great prospect, and would strongly consider him at 1.1. But, the fact remains that he is a high school pitcher, meaning he is likely 3 or 4 years away, optimistically 2 if he proves to be more polished than many give him credit for. Add in the normal risk associated with a high schooler, and I would prefer Appel if I were Houston. The upside is tantalizing with Giolito, which is why I don’t think he’s a bad choice, but Appel also offers high (albeit lesser) upside with far greater probability. That has incredible value as well. Saying a player isn’t my ideal choice for 1.1 is far from failing to “give him his due.”

      • sisko says:

        plowshare, I do a little scouting and had to make a comment here because I agree about giolito’s command… you’re getting two measurements confused, control and command are two different things, control is the ability to throw a pitch for strikes which giolito does well but command is the ability to hit spots with those pitches which giolito wasn’t doing well when I saw him, his stuff is overpowering and many high school guys can’t catch up to his fastball regardless of where it is in the strike zone ( or out of it ) and his breaking ball gets swing and misses because high school kids can’t pick it up early and lay off of it down and out of the zone.

        With that being said I also saw a comment that he wouldn’t have gone in the top 8 last year and I disagree, I would have had him second to fourth on my board in 2011 and fourth in 2010. This year is a little weaker at the top but giolito is an elite talent and even with the command issues I’d still have him as my 1-1 this year, most high school pitchers have those issues. Taillon is the only high school pitcher I’d take over giolito in this draft and the past two drafts.

  8. [...] Chris Crawford, at MLB Draft Insider, posted the second version of his mock draft, with Mark Appel sticking at number 1, Kyle Zimmer jumping up, and Victor Roache falling off.  -LINK [...]

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