Draft Review: San Diego Padres

Max Fried

Over the next six weeks, MLB-DI will take a look at each teams draft class, breaking down the best — and most questionable — over the past week.

Next up: The San Diego Padres. The Padres have one of the top three farm systems in baseball, and with seven of the first 102 picks, San Diego had a great opportunity to make that farm system just that much better. Did the Padres take advantage?

To the jump!

The Decision Makers

General Manager: Josh Byrnes

Director, Scouting: Jaron Madison

The Numbers

College: 26

Prep: 17

Pitchers: 22

Position Players: 21

LHP: 08

RHP: 14

Catchers: 03

Corner infielders: 02

Middle infielders: 07

Outfielders: 09

 The First Ten Rounds

Value Key:

Steal: Player was selected several rounds — or in the case of the first-round, several picks — earlier than his value indicated.

Solid: Player was taken later than his value indicated.

Average: Player was selected where his value indicated.

Slight-reach: Player was taken slightly earlier than his value indicated.

Reach: Player was drafted several rounds or picks earlier than his value indicated.

Pick Player Position  School Value
 01.07 Max Fried LHP Harvard Westlake HS (CA) Average
CA.33 Zach Eflin RHP Hagerty HS (FL) Steal
CA.44 Travis Jankowski OF Stony Brook Average
CA.55 Walker Weickel RHP Olympia HS (FL) Steal
02.68 Jeremy Baltz OF St. John’s Reach
02.70 Dane Phillips C Oklahoma City Slight-Reach
03.102 Fernando Perez SS Central Arizona CC Solid
04.135 Andrew Lockett RHP Providence School of Jacksonville (FL) Reach
05.165 Mallex Smith OF Santa Fe C.C. Slight-Reach
06.195 Jalen Goree SS Bibb County HS (AL) Average
07.225 Jose Madrid RHP Central Florida Average
08.255 Brian Adams OF Kentucky Average
09.285 River Stevens IF Allan Hancock (CA) Average
10.315 Stephen Carmon SS South Carolina-Aikenh Average

Analysis

Fried was without question the best left-handed starter in the draft, and was the best player available when the Padres picked. He’s still got lots of projection, and the breaking-ball flashes plus-plus. If the velocity stays consistent in that low 90′s and the changeup continues to develop, he’s a future No.1 starter. I wouldn’t bet against him.

Based on process alone, Eflin was the steal of the 2012 draft. The right-hander sits in the 91-93 range — flashing 95 — with a changeup that is big-league average already. There are concerns about the bicep tendinitis, but with rest and a good rehab program it shouldn’t be a lingering issue.

Jankowski can absolutely go get it in center-field, and while he won’t hit many homers — my 45 potential power grade might be a bit strong — but he does have good plate discipline and it wouldn’t stun me if he was a future lead-off hitter.

When the year first started, I had Weickel rated as my third best prep pitcher after showing well at the Prospect Classic last June. Unfortunately, the velocity wasn’t there this spring, and the breaking-ball was inconsistent to put it mildly. Still, there’s plenty of arm strength, and some slight changes to his release point could get him back to the prospect I believed he was last summer, and if not, he’s still a great value in the late sandwich round.

Baltz became a name to watch after a solid sophomore campaign, but he’s a poor outfielder who likely has to move to first-base, and the bat doesn’t profile there. Clearly a signability pick.

Phillips has above-average power and bat speed, but has almost no chance to stick behind the plate and doesn’t have the arm strength or speed to play in the outfield.

I thought Perez would go on day one as a guy that can hit and be a fairly easy sign, so the Padres did well to pluck him in round three. He’s going to end up at third-base, but he has average power from the right side and above-average pitch recognition.

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Final Thoughts

Through day one of the draft, this was my favorite class. No other team acquired three top thirty talents, and Jankowski was a solid selection as well. Unfortunately, from that point on, they had to play it safe, and outside of Perez in round three, there isn’t much to write home about. With that being said, if San Diego does find a way to sign their first four picks, this could easily be the best draft in the National League, if not all of baseball.

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One Response to “Draft Review: San Diego Padres”

  1. David says:

    Not for nothing, but Perez hits from the left side and you have him listed at OF above, despite correctly discussing him at 3B in the copy. Also, they took Lockett as a pitcher. And if Phillips hits the way he can, he will be given a LOT of leeway either behind the plate or in left field.
    Finally, Brian Adams at $75,000 in the eighth round makes him one of the most interesting players to watch from day two. He may completely bust, but the tool set he has is WAY WAY WAY above average. To get him at that spot – and save $60K they can spend elsewhere – was a great get.

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